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Wednesday 11 September 2024
Investment Talks
September 2024 | The first debate between US presidential candidates Trump and Harris was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was deemed to have performed better than her Republican rival Donald Trump, according to snap polls conducted after the debate. This implies that Harris will likely see an extension of the honeymoon period that has dominated since her nomination. While the US election debate was relatively disciplined and covered all the major domestic and foreign policy issues, it was light on the two candidates' policy agendas as both stuck to high-level answers with little in the way of specific measures or details of how they would accomplish their objectives.
01 | The first, and potentially only, debate between US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, was held on September 10 and was light on policy details.
02 | Harris outlined her social spending priorities, while Trump highlighted his plan to deport millions of undocumented migrants and to hike trade tariffs.
03 | Neither faced detailed challenges on the fiscal and economic consequences of some of their key proposals.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of September 11, 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author(s) and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
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