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97 news articles are available
01/10/2025
Investment Talks
January 2025 US High Yield Market Outlook & Positioning
Although full year 2024 returns for High Yield were strong and spreads tightened during the fourth quarter, fourth quarter returns were weak with losses in both October and December due to yield curve headwinds. While defaults have moderated over the last few months, Moody’s recently increased its year-end global speculative grade default by issuer forecast to 4.6% on weaker US employment. Moody’s also projects the global default rate by issuer count to decline steadily across 2025, reaching 2.7% by next November.
01/03/2025
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A semblance of a goldilocks ahead of Trump's inauguration
Markets have cheered any good news emerging in 2024 from the economy, corporate earnings and the political environment, although occasionally they were caught by surprise. Looking ahead, they will be driven by earnings momentum, a scenario of slowing US growth, and rebalancing labor markets. On the other hand, the Fed's more hawkish stance and Trump's approach to trade, along with the international response, could create volatility. Outside the US, European growth and policy-making, as well as China's response to its domestic problems, will drive the markets.
12/31/2024
Investment Talks
What is in store for tech?
To date, the US tech winners have been those companies that are engaging in substantial AI investments. The question is how and/or when will these be monetized. In the US, we expect a reset of the tech sector valuation levels, and we prefer to diversify risk away from monothematic AI plays. Specifically, leading memory players are building up capacity in high-bandwidth memory, which supports the training of AI models, and there could be a risk of over-capacity. There is also a greater focus on geopolitics among investors, and share price volatility could increase in 2025 as Trump's government is inaugurated. The primary issues are tariffs, revisions to the US Chip Act and a fall in China-US relations, all factors that could hurt the semiconductor supply chain globally.
12/23/2024
Cross Asset
Germany’s Path Ahead
German real gross domestic product has been stagnating for five years (up by just 0.1% since 2019) as a result of several factors. Notably, its automotive sector is in crisis and global trade is no longer as supportive of its exports as it was in the past. Germany is also facing a number of challenges simultaneously: industrial competitiveness is suffering from rising energy costs and increasing competition from high-quality products from China. Additionally, the rapid ageing of its population – faster than in the rest of the eurozone – is also eroding its economy’s potential growth, estimated at 0.8%. Furthermore, if US tariffs are implemented, they could cost the German economy 0.6pp of growth, according to the Bundesbank. Disagreement over the budgetary measures to be taken to deal with threats and challenges is largely responsible for the break-up of the ruling coalition.
12/23/2024
Investment Talks
Floating Rate Loans: Attractive Income Potential in an Expensive Market
Corporate debt spreads have tightened to near-record levels as the US economy has continued to expand and the Fed has begun to decrease its short-term interest rate target. We believe the improving credit health of the loan universe, the fact that loan coupons are priced off the front end of the still-inverted curve, and the strong possibility that the Fed will be unable to cut rates quickly due to sticky inflation, support the inclusion of loans in income-oriented portfolios. Additionally, considering the likely continuing stickiness of core services inflation, we believe floating rate assets such as loans are currently an attractive option to add diversification to investors’ fixed income portfolios, which are generally weighted in favor of fixed-rate instruments. In effect, we consider loan allocations to represent hedges against continuing high inflation.
12/05/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
After Trump victory, all eyes on inflation
A resilient US economy, the anticipation and eventual victory of Donald Trump and his recent appointments, along with risks around inflation have been driving nominal and real yields over the past months. But US equities and the dollar rose amid a belief that the US economy would benefit from Trump's policies at the expense of the rest of the world. While we agree US policies would reverberate across European assets and emerging markets, the actual impact depends on specific measures and countermeasures.
12/04/2024
Investment Talks
Looking Beyond a Top-Heavy Market: Four Areas for the Future
Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
11/15/2024
Investment Talks
2025 Investment Outlook: Bright spots in a world of anomalies
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
11/07/2024
Investment Talks
Trump victory: Key implications for investors
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
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