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69 news articles are available
06/07/2024
Research / Market
Biden vs Trump: high stakes in US elections
The US election rematch between President Biden and former President Trump will focus market attention on their respective agendas. There is a range of potential economic and foreign policy changes that could emerge in their second term, as well as the repercussions for financial markets. The candidates' foreign policy agendas could lead to a range of outcomes. An escalation of protectionism, particularly higher tariffs, may provoke retaliation. In this paper, we assess five policy areas based on the candidates' current comments: foreign policy, trade, taxes, immigration and energy. While rhetoric may not always translate into action, stated policies offer valuable insights into the two candidates' thinking.
06/03/2024
Investment Talks
Capturing the Momentum of a Narrowing Earnings Gap
Since early 2023, a handful of the market's top stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, have surged in earnings and valuation, and have dominated returns. Underneath the surface of today's concentrated, crowded market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural changes may occur in many industries, creating new winning and losing stocks. Separating the potential winners from the rest of the market will be key to portfolio success over the next year, and beyond. With so much uncertainty and variability across industries and companies, we believe active management is essential to capturing the momentum of a changing market.
06/03/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Explore the broadening of the rally with Europe
In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.
05/16/2024
Cross Asset
Short-term resilience, but no reacceleration likely in the mid term
We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. The Fed will still be in a position to pivot towards rate cuts and we expect 75 bps of cuts in 2024 (vs 40 bps by markets) as: (1) monetary policy remains restrictive and will become more restrictive as inflation declines; (2) growth will slow down; and (3) recent inflation data have not altered our year-end projections.
05/15/2024
Investment Talks
Going Global with Equities - May 2024
Due to factors, including significant stimulus and hopes over artificial intelligence, a handful of the top US stocks are experiencing significantly high valuations. While US investors should continue to have exposure to domestic stocks, the outlook for international stocks appears to be improving. With global valuations unjustifiably low, a potential recession ahead, and top US stocks currently posting excessive valuations, investors may wish to consider expanding the global reach of their portfolios to opportunities in Europe and Asia.
05/08/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Searching for bright spots in a trickier phase
Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading Amundi and various institutions including the International Monetary Fund, to revise US growth forecasts upward. We believe current strong momentum will continue into Q2, but expect a deceleration in H2. Inflation data also points to stickier prices, with upside risks, especially around oil, from the recent geopolitical escalation, opening a difficult phase for central banks. We expect fewer rate cuts but higher uncertainty around policy actions.
05/07/2024
Investment Talks
Opportunities in Catastrophe Bonds
As a structurally uncorrelated source of risk and return, we believe catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities (ILS) may permit investors to build more diversified and resilient portfolios. This could be particularly true now, as the rate on line (the ratio of premium paid to loss recoverable in a reinsurance contract) for private ILS formats and the cat bond market spread remain elevated and could provide attractive total yield potential. We believe the combination of continued elevated pricing, combined with the ongoing demand for reinsurance, may present an attractive investment opportunity throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
04/23/2024
Investment Talks
Remain agile in bond selection, with an eye on last mile inflation
Though the US economy and consumers appear to have largely defied the "gravitational pull" of significantly tighter monetary policy, we continue to view the risk of a recession during 2024 as higher than normal. We expect that such a recessionary scenario would lead to significantly greater interest rate cuts, while the "no landing" scenario of more persistent inflation would delay the start of rate cuts. As developed economy central banks continue to grapple with when to start normalizing local monetary policy, now could be an interesting time for investors to strengthen their portfolios by extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios and raising credit quality and liquidity profiles while carefully weighing global opportunities.
04/22/2024
Cross Asset
A window of opportunity for European equities
After a strong close to 2023 and a resilient first quarter, we expect the US economy to decelerate as we continue through 2024. The most vulnerable segments of the economy are showing signs of stress, although data on the broader economy remain mixed. We continue to expect inflation to moderate amid some volatility, particularly on the sticky services side, as domestic demand cools. We acknowledge the trend strength in risk assets, but high valuations are preventing us from massively shifting our risk gear upwards. The equity rally is broadening and we see a rotation towards European equities, where we have now a neutral stance.
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