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Friday 10 November 2023
Investment Talks
The Reinvestment Risk of Cash
November 2023 | While cash interest rates may be relatively high today, those elevated levels may not last very long. For investors whose objectives can be measured in months or years rather than days, we believe today’s historically elevated interest rates may call for allocating at a point on the yield curve that controls for volatility risk without ignoring reinvestment risk.
01 | With cash rates elevated, why own longer-maturity fixed income securities that may offer a lower yield and higher volatility?
02 | Against the interest rate risk inherent in most fixed income securities, investors should consider the reinvestment risk inherent in cash.
03 | Moving into longer-maturity fixed income securities may help investors lock in today’s attractive income levels before they disappear.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of November 10, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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We believe that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could have over the long-term a positive impact on productivity and GDP growth. However, the impact will not be linear across sectors, especially in the early phases. There will be winners and losers in most industries. To be a "winner" a company needs not only to be an early-mover in terms of investing in AI, but also possess a proprietary data advantage, an existing competitive edge based on market position and an ability to innovate successfully. Otherwise, any advantages from using AI technologies could be competed away. In our view, the future winners are most likely to be found among the existing competitively-advantaged companies.
Recent market activity has been marked by increased volatility. In the US, this has been mainly driven by growing concerns about the trajectory of the US economy, particularly in light of the erratic statements from President Trump with regard to tariffs. Additionally, the latest economic data has been disappointing. Consequently, the market's expectations for US growth for the current year have been revised downwards. With near-term inflation still well above the Fed’s target and consumer expectations of rising inflation (primarily a function of tariffs), the Fed will likely be forced to hold rates higher for longer to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored. But, through the course of this year, we believe it will be able to reduce interest rates.
Unlike the US Treasury curve, the tax-exempt curve remains significantly positively sloped, leading to elevated yields in core and longer-duration municipal strategies. The high yield municipal market, in our view, displays a potential opportunity to provide not only tax-efficient dividends, but also pockets of price appreciation found in select sectors and security themes. In general, we expect credit stability in 2025, with potential policy shifts creating both credit negatives and positives. Some of these policy impacts may be felt in port issuers: broadly applied tariffs could impact bottom lines; hands-off energy policy could benefit traditional energy-producing local agencies and states; and Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement eligibility rate shifts could negatively impact smaller regional health care systems.
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