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Thursday 20 March 2025
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March 2025 | Recent developments in AI highlight how quickly the tech sector evolves, impacting companies that have built competitive advantages and sparking investor enthusiasm in recent months. For these companies, the arrival of DeepSeek (China's new entrant in the field of AI) and of more efficient open-source AI models increases uncertainty regarding the future earnings path. However, from a macroeconomic standpoint, we see it as a possible turning point for AI adoption, showing that the AI theme is not over, but is evolving. The latest events align with our view that continued competition and innovation are likely to create winners and losers, and help broaden the benefits of the new technology across the economy by lowering barriers to entry, accelerating adoption, and creating new opportunities.
01 | The adoption of AI among businesses and households is progressing quickly, although it is still in its initial phases. There is considerable potential for wider implementation.
02 | Generally, advanced economies are readier than emerging ones to adopt AI. However, some emerging economies, such as China and a few Eastern European countries, are among the leaders in AI preparedness.
03 | Competition and innovation should help broaden the benefits of the new technology across the economy by lowering barriers to entry, accelerating adoption and creating new opportunities.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 11, 2025. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
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Recent market activity has been marked by increased volatility. In the US, this has been mainly driven by growing concerns about the trajectory of the US economy, particularly in light of the erratic statements from President Trump with regard to tariffs. Additionally, the latest economic data has been disappointing. Consequently, the market's expectations for US growth for the current year have been revised downwards. With near-term inflation still well above the Fed’s target and consumer expectations of rising inflation (primarily a function of tariffs), the Fed will likely be forced to hold rates higher for longer to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored. But, through the course of this year, we believe it will be able to reduce interest rates.
Unlike the US Treasury curve, the tax-exempt curve remains significantly positively sloped, leading to elevated yields in core and longer-duration municipal strategies. The high yield municipal market, in our view, displays a potential opportunity to provide not only tax-efficient dividends, but also pockets of price appreciation found in select sectors and security themes. In general, we expect credit stability in 2025, with potential policy shifts creating both credit negatives and positives. Some of these policy impacts may be felt in port issuers: broadly applied tariffs could impact bottom lines; hands-off energy policy could benefit traditional energy-producing local agencies and states; and Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement eligibility rate shifts could negatively impact smaller regional health care systems.
Given the tensions that brought down the last German government, which was a three-party coalition, preference will be given to a two-party coalition to limit the amount of compromise necessary. The most likely coalition is between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. The German economy, which was in recession for the second year running in 2024, is the weakest economy in the eurozone. Tightening financial conditions, rising energy prices and weakening foreign demand (particularly from China) explain the poor economic performance. Uncertainty over tariffs has been weighing on confidence and domestic demand since the start of the year.
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