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Short-term resilience, but no reacceleration likely in the mid term
Thursday 16 May 2024
Cross Asset
Short-term resilience, but no reacceleration likely in the mid term
May 2024 | We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. The Fed will still be in a position to pivot towards rate cuts and we expect 75 bps of cuts in 2024 (vs 40 bps by markets) as: (1) monetary policy remains restrictive and will become more restrictive as inflation declines; (2) growth will slow down; and (3) recent inflation data have not altered our year-end projections.
01 | The International Monetary Fund outlook highlights the remarkable resilience in growth and declining inflation in most countries. However, the medium-term outlook remains subdued when compared to the pre-pandemic growth average.
02 | Although inflation is softening, its reduction remains a priority, and central banks need to calibrate monetary policy at a country level.
03 | The tremendous optimism in financial markets based on the soft-landing narrative presents challenges.
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Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of May 6, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Other news
10/10/2024
Cross Asset
A call to action for Europe's competitiveness
A recent report in Europe shows the region's productivity and investment gap with the United States is widening, and a similar trend is emerging in connection to China. The risk of Europe becoming irrelevant is escalating, particularly in light of advancements in the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). In the US, the Fed gave strong forward guidance on rates, which is in contrast to its recent approach of staying data dependent on inflation. This, coupled with some concerns on growth, led us to lower our terminal rate expectations. Its 50bp cut underscores the Fed's willingness to pivot after the recent labor market softening and diminishing upside risks to inflation. We expect further 50bp cuts by year-end.
09/17/2024
Cross Asset
Japanese yen: what's next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. The rise in the July unemployment rate to 4.3% (latest reading in August is 4.2%) triggered a significant market concern about a possible weaker-than-expected US labor market, raising the risk of an impending recession. We do expect a significant slowdown of the US economy, but not a recession. We expect a significant deceleration in the next few quarters, consistent with a broader weakening of many labor market indicators.
07/29/2024
Cross Asset
How long can the central banks’ divergence last
The global macro backdrop – inflation scares, geopolitical tensions and recession worries – together with US economic resilience, have supported the dollar versus core currencies, but the latter are not weak relative to recent history. Moreover, the difference in market expectations of terminal rates in Europe are now substantially higher than before the pandemic, and not materially different from expected US terminal rates. This should limit any sustained weakness in European exchange rates.
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