Investor Account Access
Investor access to Shareowner accounts and Closed End Funds accounts.
Views on China for 2025 and beyond
Tuesday 28 January 2025
Cross Asset
Views on China for 2025 and beyond
January 2025 | Unlike a year ago, when we described the policy stance as complacently passive, Chinese leadership has now eliminated all ambiguity. It is explicitly advocating for unconventional policies that include monetary easing and a more expansionary fiscal policy. This pivot is probably triggered by an atypical systemic crisis, where local governments were tight on money, struggling to pay corporates, banks and civil servants. Additionally, the election of Donald Trump as US president further seals the deal for such a shift. As a result of this newfound clarity in leadership, we expect a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the economy.
01 | China's leadership explicitly advocates for unconventional policies that include monetary easing and a more expansionary fiscal policy. However, we believe these policies will not offset the existing structural drags and US tariff impacts completely.
02 | In the case of aggressive US trade protectionism and export controls, China should keep its expansionary fiscal stance for longer than currently expected.
03 | Chinese equity will be influenced by the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy, while additional stimulus could support Chinese markets, particularly domestic stocks. We maintain a neutral stance favoring domestic markets.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of January 17, 2025. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
RO ID# 4194569
©2025 Amundi Asset Management
Other news
12/23/2024
Cross Asset
Germany’s Path Ahead
German real gross domestic product has been stagnating for five years (up by just 0.1% since 2019) as a result of several factors. Notably, its automotive sector is in crisis and global trade is no longer as supportive of its exports as it was in the past. Germany is also facing a number of challenges simultaneously: industrial competitiveness is suffering from rising energy costs and increasing competition from high-quality products from China. Additionally, the rapid ageing of its population – faster than in the rest of the eurozone – is also eroding its economy’s potential growth, estimated at 0.8%. Furthermore, if US tariffs are implemented, they could cost the German economy 0.6pp of growth, according to the Bundesbank. Disagreement over the budgetary measures to be taken to deal with threats and challenges is largely responsible for the break-up of the ruling coalition.
10/10/2024
Cross Asset
A call to action for Europe's competitiveness
A recent report in Europe shows the region's productivity and investment gap with the United States is widening, and a similar trend is emerging in connection to China. The risk of Europe becoming irrelevant is escalating, particularly in light of advancements in the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI). In the US, the Fed gave strong forward guidance on rates, which is in contrast to its recent approach of staying data dependent on inflation. This, coupled with some concerns on growth, led us to lower our terminal rate expectations. Its 50bp cut underscores the Fed's willingness to pivot after the recent labor market softening and diminishing upside risks to inflation. We expect further 50bp cuts by year-end.
Before investing, consider the product's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact your financial professional or Amundi US for a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. To obtain a free prospectus or summary prospectus and for information on any Pioneer fund, please download it from our literature section.
Securities offered through Amundi Distributor US, Inc.
60 State Street, Boston, MA 02109
Underwriter of Pioneer mutual funds, Member
SIPC.
Not FDIC insured | May lose value | No bank guarantee Amundi Asset Management US, Inc. Form CRS Amundi Distributor US, Inc. Form CRS