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Monday 16 September 2024
Investment Talks
September 2024 | Passive strategies have generally have fared well over the past decade, which has made it easy to forget the long periods during which active managers outpaced passive approaches. The reasons we believe market concentration will decline include (1) a shrinking earnings advantage for the top ten companies, and (2) seemingly unsustainably high valuations. We believe investors may benefit from investing with active managers that thoughtfully select their exposure based on the earnings and valuation profile of each stock.
01 | Historically, there are have been two environments in which active US equity managers have outperformed: when index concentration has declined, and during bear markets.
02 | As a result of today’s exceedingly narrow market environment, S&P 500 Index concentration in the top five stocks has reached an all-time high.
03 | We believe US equities appear priced to perfection from a valuation perspective. Given active managers’ track records of outperforming during bear markets, this may be a good time to switch from passive to active strategies.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of September 16, 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
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