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Tuesday 07 May 2024
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May 2024 | As a structurally uncorrelated source of risk and return, we believe catastrophe bonds and inflation-linked securities (ILS) may permit investors to build more diversified and resilient portfolios. This could be particularly true now, as the rate on line (the ratio of premium paid to loss recoverable in a reinsurance contract) for private ILS formats and the cat bond market spread remain elevated and could provide attractive total yield potential. We believe the combination of continued elevated pricing, combined with the ongoing demand for reinsurance, may present an attractive investment opportunity throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
01 | The performance of insurance-linked securities, including catastrophe bonds, is linked to low-probability but high-severity events. As a result, their performance generally has a low correlation to traditional financial markets.
02 | The reinsurance industry has existed for over 150 years, and its benchmark, the Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index, has delivered positive returns in 20 of the past 21 years.
03 | A supply/demand imbalance for reinsurance, compounded by recent events over the past several years, may have significantly increased the investment opportunity, and we expect these trends to continue into the foreseeable future.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of April 30, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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We believe that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could have over the long-term a positive impact on productivity and GDP growth. However, the impact will not be linear across sectors, especially in the early phases. There will be winners and losers in most industries. To be a "winner" a company needs not only to be an early-mover in terms of investing in AI, but also possess a proprietary data advantage, an existing competitive edge based on market position and an ability to innovate successfully. Otherwise, any advantages from using AI technologies could be competed away. In our view, the future winners are most likely to be found among the existing competitively-advantaged companies.
Recent market activity has been marked by increased volatility. In the US, this has been mainly driven by growing concerns about the trajectory of the US economy, particularly in light of the erratic statements from President Trump with regard to tariffs. Additionally, the latest economic data has been disappointing. Consequently, the market's expectations for US growth for the current year have been revised downwards. With near-term inflation still well above the Fed’s target and consumer expectations of rising inflation (primarily a function of tariffs), the Fed will likely be forced to hold rates higher for longer to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored. But, through the course of this year, we believe it will be able to reduce interest rates.
Unlike the US Treasury curve, the tax-exempt curve remains significantly positively sloped, leading to elevated yields in core and longer-duration municipal strategies. The high yield municipal market, in our view, displays a potential opportunity to provide not only tax-efficient dividends, but also pockets of price appreciation found in select sectors and security themes. In general, we expect credit stability in 2025, with potential policy shifts creating both credit negatives and positives. Some of these policy impacts may be felt in port issuers: broadly applied tariffs could impact bottom lines; hands-off energy policy could benefit traditional energy-producing local agencies and states; and Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement eligibility rate shifts could negatively impact smaller regional health care systems.
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