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Monday 09 October 2023
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October 2023 | Catastrophe bonds are outcome-oriented investments with low correlation to the broader capital markets. Because they do not move in line with traditional financial stocks, these instruments provide potential opportunities for investors to expand the scope of their portfolios. In addition, they have offered more attractive risk/return characteristics over the past 10 years than have many traditional asset classes.
01 | The performance of insurance-linked securities, including catastrophe bonds, is linked to low-probability but high-severity events. As a result, their performance generally has a low correlation to traditional financial markets.
02 | The reinsurance industry has been in existence for over 150 years, and its benchmark, the Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index, has delivered positive returns in 20 of the past 21 years.
03 | A supply/demand imbalance for reinsurance, compounded by recent events over the past several years, may have significantly increased the investment opportunity, and we expect these trends to continue into the foreseeable future.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of September 30, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
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