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Tuesday 08 October 2024
Investment Talks
October 2024 | Third-quarter returns were strong. Performance of BBs and Bs was fueled by falling government bond yields as the major central banks’ swings to more accommodative policies were offset by mildly widening spreads. The big performance surprise was the extremely strong performance of CCCs and the Distressed index.
01 | Third-quarter high yield index performance was strong as government bond yields fell.
02 | Inflation data continued to indicate a slow decline, with data such as rents stuck in a “two steps forward, one step back” mode.
03 | The US expansion continued, yet indications of weakening labor conditions and consumer spending continued to emerge.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of September 30, 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
The broad outlines of the candidates' respective platforms are coming into focus, though they still lack clarity on costs related to specific proposals. Most importantly, it will not be clear until after the elections which policies will be implemented - beyond the election rhetoric - or whether Congress will agree to enact them. Here, we evaluate the candidates' platforms and their potential effects on the US economy.
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