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Wednesday 23 August 2023
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August 2023 | As global markets react to central banks’ efforts to control persistent inflation, the opportunity set is changing across international equities. In our view, there are several underlying reasons to be optimistic about equity markets outside the US. Meanwhile, due to several factors, including recent significant stimulus and hopes over artificial intelligence, a handful of US stocks are experiencing significantly high valuations. In order to diversify their investments and find new opportunities, investors can consider incorporating global equities into their portfolios.
01 | We believe the US economy is positioned to experience a prolonged slowdown and possibly a recession.
02 | US equity markets appear expensive relative to other markets and to their own history.
03 | With inflationary pressures likely to remain higher for longer, investors may be able to benefit from expanding the global reach of their portfolios.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of August 16, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.
To date, the US tech winners have been those companies that are engaging in substantial AI investments. The question is how and/or when will these be monetized. In the US, we expect a reset of the tech sector valuation levels, and we prefer to diversify risk away from monothematic AI plays. Specifically, leading memory players are building up capacity in high-bandwidth memory, which supports the training of AI models, and there could be a risk of over-capacity. There is also a greater focus on geopolitics among investors, and share price volatility could increase in 2025 as Trump's government is inaugurated. The primary issues are tariffs, revisions to the US Chip Act and a fall in China-US relations, all factors that could hurt the semiconductor supply chain globally.
Corporate debt spreads have tightened to near-record levels as the US economy has continued to expand and the Fed has begun to decrease its short-term interest rate target. We believe the improving credit health of the loan universe, the fact that loan coupons are priced off the front end of the still-inverted curve, and the strong possibility that the Fed will be unable to cut rates quickly due to sticky inflation, support the inclusion of loans in income-oriented portfolios. Additionally, considering the likely continuing stickiness of core services inflation, we believe floating rate assets such as loans are currently an attractive option to add diversification to investors’ fixed income portfolios, which are generally weighted in favor of fixed-rate instruments. In effect, we consider loan allocations to represent hedges against continuing high inflation.
Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
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