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Monday 03 June 2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
June 2024 | In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.
01 | We upgrade this year's economic growth expectations for the Eurozone and the UK due to domestic demand and slowing inflation.
02 |We believe the US should remain resilient in the first half, but slowing wage growth and consumer delinquencies may weigh on the economy later.
03 | The disinflationary process in Europe and the UK will allow central banks to reduce rates, possibly ahead of the Fed.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of May 30, 2024 . Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the [author] and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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A resilient US economy, the anticipation and eventual victory of Donald Trump and his recent appointments, along with risks around inflation have been driving nominal and real yields over the past months. But US equities and the dollar rose amid a belief that the US economy would benefit from Trump's policies at the expense of the rest of the world. While we agree US policies would reverberate across European assets and emerging markets, the actual impact depends on specific measures and countermeasures.
The move up in bond yields, US stocks (record highs in October), and Europe indicate markets' perception of a perfect scenario centered around strong US growth and falling inflation and a positive impetus from monetary easing in Europe. Although we acknowledge the resilience of the US, not all data in the US and Europe has been straightforward.
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labor market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. We now believe the Fed will ease policy by another 50 bps this year (75 bps previously expected), split equally between its two remaining meetings.
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