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Mixed economic signals open up opportunities
Friday 01 November 2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Mixed economic signals open up opportunities
November 2024 | The move up in bond yields, US stocks (record highs in October), and Europe indicate markets' perception of a perfect scenario centered around strong US growth and falling inflation and a positive impetus from monetary easing in Europe. Although we acknowledge the resilience of the US, not all data in the US and Europe has been straightforward.
01 | Amid a deterioration in US job markets, we expect an increase in the unemployment rate.
02 | We believe inflation should be close to the Fed's target around mid-2025.
03 | Markets' expectations on the Fed are now closer to our internal projections of two more rate cuts this year.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of 1 November 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Other news
10/07/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Fed rate cut boosts the markets – but for how long?
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labor market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. We now believe the Fed will ease policy by another 50 bps this year (75 bps previously expected), split equally between its two remaining meetings.
09/09/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A summer of reality checks on market expectations
Markets are shifting their focus to economic growth as inflation continues to decline. The primary reason for this shift seems to be weakening consumption, which is now extending to wider sections of the economy. We believe this environment calls for a more prudent stance, and a tactical, incremental risk reduction rather than a structural de-risking. Overall, we are marginally positive on risk assets and suggest staying well-diversified. At the same time, we remain vigilant after the recent yield movements and are wary of potential fiscal risks.
08/01/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Rotation and broadening in equities has started
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, exuberance over artificial intelligence and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs. Some early signs of this rotation materialized recently after the July consumer price index report raised the chances of a Fed rate cut in September, while most recently fears on restrictions on the chip industry further supported this trend. This opens up opportunities into areas and segments (small caps, Europe, Japan) that have been left behind.
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