17 February, 2025

US inflation surprises on the upside

Summary

Highlights

Inflation will remain sticky in the first half of the year, and should move higher in the second half.
The new administration’s policy should affect expected inflation, not actual inflation for now.
The Fed could be patient on holding rates at the current level.

In this edition

January's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations, with a monthly gain of 0.5%, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.0%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also accelerated. This first inflation report of the year may reflect some seasonal effects, along with annual price increases that typically roll out at the start of the year. Besides the yearly noise, the biggest surprise was in core inflation, driven by strong gains in prescription drugs and used cars. The report highlighted factors that could pose medium-term inflation risks, such as the recent halt in disinflation for housing costs, which may establish a floor for overall inflation. The Fed will likely remain patient.

Key dates

18 Feb

UK unemployment, French inflation, US Empire State manufact

19 Feb

UK inflation, US housing starts and building permits, PBoC Loan Prime Rate (20 Feb)

21 Feb

JP inflation, EZ and UK flash PMIs, US existing home sales

Read the full article on the Amundi Research Center

Welcome to Amundi

To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.

1
Profile
2
Cookies

Your profile: Institutional investor

Welcome to the institutional section of Amundi Asset Management’s website. Amundi Asset Management is a portfolio management company authorised by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers under number GP 04000036. French "Société par Actions Simplifiée" - SAS, having its registered office: 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris. 437 574 452 RCS Paris.

This website is targeted at institutional, professional or qualified investors only.

If you are a resident of a country with a dedicated Amundi website, you are requested to leave this page and connect to the respective Amundi country site.

US PERSONS

The information contained in this site is not intended for nationals or citizens of the United States of America or “US Persons” as defined by “Regulation S” of the Securities and Exchange Commission under the US Securities Act of 1933, which notably applies to any natural person residing in the United States of America and any partnership or corporation organised or registered under US regulations. If you are a “US Person”, you are not authorised to access this site and you are invited to log onto amundi.com/us.

This site is solely intended to provide information about Amundi and its affiliates. None of the information contained in this website constitutes an offer by Amundi and/or its affiliated companies to buy or sell financial instruments or to provide investment advice.

Amundi informs you that the information contained in this site is given purely by way of indication and provides a general presentation of our services and organisation. This information is not exhaustive, may evolve over time and may be updated by Amundi, without notice and at any time.

Your access to this site is subject to compliance with the French legislation in force and to the “Legal notice/General conditions of access to the site”.

By choosing to access our site, you acknowledge having read these terms and conditions and agree with them. In your interest, we recommend that you read them carefully.

This information is exclusively intended for “Professional” investors within the meaning Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and the Council of 15 Many 2014 on Markets in Financial Instruments (as amended) (MIFID II). It is not intended for the general public or for non-professional individual investors within the meaning of all local regulations, or for “US Persons”, as defined in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “Regulation S” under the 1933 U.S. Securities Act. This non-contractual information does not under any circumstances constitute an offer to buy, a solicitation to sell, or advice to invest in financial instruments of Amundi or one of its affiliates (“Amundi”). Investing involves risks. The performance of the strategies is not guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results. Investors may lose all or part of the capital originally invested. There is no guarantee that ESG considerations will enhance a strategy’s performance. The decision of investors to invest in the promoted strategies should take into account all characteristics of objectives of the strategies. All investors should seek professional advice prior to any investment decision, in order to determine the risks associated with the investment and its suitability. Amundi assumes no liability, either direct or indirect, resulting from the use of any of the information contained in this document, and shall not under any circumstances be held liable for any decisions taken on the basis of this information. This information may not be copied, reproduced, modified, translated or distributed, without the prior written approval of Amundi. This information is provided to you based on sources that Amundi considers to be reliable at the date of publication, and it may be modified at any time without prior notice.