Key Points
01 | A resilient US economy and strong earnings expectations for the year are driving the recent upside in equities and increase in yields.
02 | On the economic front, the past strength of the US economy led us to forecast a less ugly slowdown, therefore extending the late-cycle environment.
03 | We do not see this as a beginning of a new cycle, and expect a slowdown around the middle of the year, as well as continued disinflation.
April 2024 | Stocks are pricing in a rosy scenario in terms of economic growth, which has led to strong upside already this year, with some broadening of the rally evident recently. These movements are further aided by ample liquidity and robust earnings, particularly in the US. The messaging from the Fed and the ECB has been focused on how important it is for inflation to come down for them to reduce rates, even though the debate continues on whether the neutral
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