Our annual Capital Market Assumptions explore the impacts of global game-changers on the long-term expected returns for more than 40 asset classes.

Key Points

While the global economy faces challenges from rising nationalism, job and business transformations stemming from the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, and long-term demographic shifts, the ultimate outcome may not be negative for economies and markets. Instead, we see appealing and improved returns for investors over the next decade compared to last year’s forecasts, with a greater emphasis on diversification, particularly in equities. As some of the trends in our CMA (based on end of 2024 valuation levels) are accelerating and already starting to materialise in 2025, we also provide insights on which of these trends are likely to endure over the long term.
 

  1. Towards three decades of growth rebalancing in a more fragmented world
     

  2. Game-changers in Europe will empower European transformation
     

  3. Bonds are back is reaffirmed, but be prepared for long-term rates uncertainty
     

  4. Appealing global equity returns supported by improving earning growth dynamics
     

  5. Asia in focus in the tech race, with India set to benefit
     

  6. The rising need for portfolio diversifiers in a riskier world
     

  7. Appealing returns for the next decade for an optimised 60-40 allocation