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Capturing the Momentum of a Narrowing Earnings Gap
Monday 03 June 2024
Investment Talks
Capturing the Momentum of a Narrowing Earnings Gap
June 2024 | Since early 2023, a handful of the market's top stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, have surged in earnings and valuation, and have dominated returns. Underneath the surface of today's concentrated, crowded market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural changes may occur in many industries, creating new winning and losing stocks. Separating the potential winners from the rest of the market will be key to portfolio success over the next year, and beyond. With so much uncertainty and variability across industries and companies, we believe active management is essential to capturing the momentum of a changing market.
01 | Top stocks including the Magnificent Seven have dominated equity returns since early 2023 as their earnings growth has far outpaced the rest of the market.
02 | We believe many stocks that have outperformed in 2023-2024 are over-owned, and expensive relative to the average stock.
03 | The market is mostly ignoring these changes, potentially presenting a range of opportunities for active investors.
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of May 28, 2024. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
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Other news
05/15/2024
Investment Talks
Going Global with Equities - May 2024
Due to factors, including significant stimulus and hopes over artificial intelligence, a handful of the top US stocks are experiencing significantly high valuations. While US investors should continue to have exposure to domestic stocks, the outlook for international stocks appears to be improving. With global valuations unjustifiably low, a potential recession ahead, and top US stocks currently posting excessive valuations, investors may wish to consider expanding the global reach of their portfolios to opportunities in Europe and Asia.
05/07/2024
Investment Talks
Opportunities in Catastrophe Bonds
As a structurally uncorrelated source of risk and return, we believe catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities (ILS) may permit investors to build more diversified and resilient portfolios. This could be particularly true now, as the rate on line (the ratio of premium paid to loss recoverable in a reinsurance contract) for private ILS formats and the cat bond market spread remain elevated and could provide attractive total yield potential. We believe the combination of continued elevated pricing, combined with the ongoing demand for reinsurance, may present an attractive investment opportunity throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
04/23/2024
Investment Talks
Remain agile in bond selection, with an eye on last mile inflation
Though the US economy and consumers appear to have largely defied the "gravitational pull" of significantly tighter monetary policy, we continue to view the risk of a recession during 2024 as higher than normal. We expect that such a recessionary scenario would lead to significantly greater interest rate cuts, while the "no landing" scenario of more persistent inflation would delay the start of rate cuts. As developed economy central banks continue to grapple with when to start normalizing local monetary policy, now could be an interesting time for investors to strengthen their portfolios by extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios and raising credit quality and liquidity profiles while carefully weighing global opportunities.
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