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Latest Research and Insights
12/04/2024
Investment Talks
Looking Beyond a Top-Heavy Market: Four Areas for the Future
Underneath the surface of today’s concentrated US equities market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural and cyclical changes may create new winning and losing stocks. Although the market is mostly ignoring the valuation risks, we have seen signs that this market imbalance may be ready to unwind. Notably, a higher-than-average amount of S&P 500 returns is explained by company-specific factors rather than macro factors, and valuation dispersion is also high. For active managers, the key is not just to identify pockets of value, but paths to future value through revenue and earnings growth.
11/15/2024
Investment Talks
2025 Investment Outlook: Bright spots in a world of anomalies
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification. Escalating geopolitical tensions, increased economic frictions, and ongoing conflicts will require companies to form new partnerships and relocate their operations to mitigate risks. From a fixed income perspective, the gradual return to neutral monetary policies may emphasize bonds' income-generating function, with relatively higher yields compared to the past. We see appealing opportunities in investment grade and short maturity high-yield credit.
11/07/2024
Investment Talks
Trump victory: Key implications for investors
Former President Donald Trump will return to the US White House for the next four years and, with the Republican party also taking the Senate and possibly the House, a “red sweep” is the most likely outcome. Financial markets reacted by extending popular “Trump trades” – pushing up bond yields, the US dollar and equity futures – as investors assign higher odds of Trump turning policy proposals into reality. The inflation impact of Trump’s policies will pose risks to fixed income investments, and these could be amplified by concerns about US fiscal sustainability.
Products and Investment Ideas
Dynamic Markets Agile Thinking
We anticipate fundamental market shifts in 2024 resulting from global dynamics and geopolitical events, and continue our agile emphasis on value, quality and growth across asset classes.
Global Opportunities Shift
Look beyond near horizons to pockets of resilience and change in a transitioning economy.
Bonds Take Center Stage
Rate cuts in 2024 may be the catalyst for reducing portfolio risk by moving allocations to longer-term, higher-quality bonds.
Momentum for Quality Accelerates
Consider shifting equity holdings away from concentration risk by infusing quality across cyclicals, defensives and industries primed for the next-stage economy.
Consider Low- or Uncorrelated Allocations
Market volatility is an expected undercurrent in 2024, and alternatives to traditional assets may offset the potential downside.
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