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Latest Research and Insights
08/05/2024
Investment Talks
US economy worries pummel markets
Global stocks fell sharply at the start of the week, with Japan’s benchmark Topix index on Aug. 5 suffering its biggest one-day drop in more than three decades. European shares and U.S. stock futures also declined. Meanwhile Emerging Markets stock indices, mostly in Asia (Taiwan and South Korea), fell into the red and currencies that had benefited from high carry trades funded by the yen, such as those in Latin America, lost ground.
08/01/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
Rotation and broadening in equities has started
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, exuberance over artificial intelligence and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs. Some early signs of this rotation materialized recently after the July consumer price index report raised the chances of a Fed rate cut in September, while most recently fears on restrictions on the chip industry further supported this trend. This opens up opportunities into areas and segments (small caps, Europe, Japan) that have been left behind.
07/17/2024
Research / Market
Will productivity turn global growth around?
Global growth has been on a secular decline since around 2000, with a more pronounced decline following the Global Financial Crisis. To explain this, economists typically cite the sizeable and broad-based slowdown in Total Factor Productivity Growth, which measures how efficiently labor and capital inputs are used to produce output. Looking back over longer periods, there were strong advances in productivity after WW2 in the advanced economies in the 1970s to the 90s, but since around 2000, there has been a broad-based slowdown. If these trends continue, global growth over the next decade will likely be sub-3%, compared to just under 4% in the two decades before the pandemic, even before considering recent adverse developments such as global economic fragmentation, increasing security concerns and the transition to net zero. In this paper, we analyze the contributing factors and economic risks.
Products and Investment Ideas
Dynamic Markets Agile Thinking
We anticipate fundamental market shifts in 2024 resulting from global dynamics and geopolitical events, and continue our agile emphasis on value, quality and growth across asset classes.
Global Opportunities Shift
Look beyond near horizons to pockets of resilience and change in a transitioning economy.
Bonds Take Center Stage
Rate cuts in 2024 may be the catalyst for reducing portfolio risk by moving allocations to longer-term, higher-quality bonds.
Momentum for Quality Accelerates
Consider shifting equity holdings away from concentration risk by infusing quality across cyclicals, defensives and industries primed for the next-stage economy.
Consider Low- or Uncorrelated Allocations
Market volatility is an expected undercurrent in 2024, and alternatives to traditional assets may offset the potential downside.
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