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Latest Research and Insights
12/23/2024
Investment Talks
Floating Rate Loans: Attractive Income Potential in an Expensive Market
Corporate debt spreads have tightened to near-record levels as the US economy has continued to expand and the Fed has begun to decrease its short-term interest rate target. We believe the improving credit health of the loan universe, the fact that loan coupons are priced off the front end of the still-inverted curve, and the strong possibility that the Fed will be unable to cut rates quickly due to sticky inflation, support the inclusion of loans in income-oriented portfolios. Additionally, considering the likely continuing stickiness of core services inflation, we believe floating rate assets such as loans are currently an attractive option to add diversification to investors’ fixed income portfolios, which are generally weighted in favor of fixed-rate instruments. In effect, we consider loan allocations to represent hedges against continuing high inflation.
12/23/2024
Cross Asset
Germany’s Path Ahead
German real gross domestic product has been stagnating for five years (up by just 0.1% since 2019) as a result of several factors. Notably, its automotive sector is in crisis and global trade is no longer as supportive of its exports as it was in the past. Germany is also facing a number of challenges simultaneously: industrial competitiveness is suffering from rising energy costs and increasing competition from high-quality products from China. Additionally, the rapid ageing of its population – faster than in the rest of the eurozone – is also eroding its economy’s potential growth, estimated at 0.8%. Furthermore, if US tariffs are implemented, they could cost the German economy 0.6pp of growth, according to the Bundesbank. Disagreement over the budgetary measures to be taken to deal with threats and challenges is largely responsible for the break-up of the ruling coalition.
12/05/2024
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
After Trump victory, all eyes on inflation
A resilient US economy, the anticipation and eventual victory of Donald Trump and his recent appointments, along with risks around inflation have been driving nominal and real yields over the past months. But US equities and the dollar rose amid a belief that the US economy would benefit from Trump's policies at the expense of the rest of the world. While we agree US policies would reverberate across European assets and emerging markets, the actual impact depends on specific measures and countermeasures.
Products and Investment Ideas
Dynamic Markets Agile Thinking
We anticipate fundamental market shifts in 2024 resulting from global dynamics and geopolitical events, and continue our agile emphasis on value, quality and growth across asset classes.
Global Opportunities Shift
Look beyond near horizons to pockets of resilience and change in a transitioning economy.
Bonds Take Center Stage
Rate cuts in 2024 may be the catalyst for reducing portfolio risk by moving allocations to longer-term, higher-quality bonds.
Momentum for Quality Accelerates
Consider shifting equity holdings away from concentration risk by infusing quality across cyclicals, defensives and industries primed for the next-stage economy.
Consider Low- or Uncorrelated Allocations
Market volatility is an expected undercurrent in 2024, and alternatives to traditional assets may offset the potential downside.
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