Investor Account Access
Investor access to Shareowner accounts and Closed End Funds accounts.
Since early 2023, a handful of the market's top stocks, including the Magnificent Seven, have surged in earnings and valuation, and have dominated returns. Underneath the surface of today's concentrated, crowded market, sharp earnings recoveries may soon play out and structural changes may occur in many industries, creating new winning and losing stocks. Separating the potential winners from the rest of the market will be key to portfolio success over the next year, and beyond. With so much uncertainty and variability across industries and companies, we believe active management is essential to capturing the momentum of a changing market.
In developed markets, we move to neutral from positive on Japan and we see scope for rebalancing in favor of the UK, European small caps and the US. While the US is displaying strong earnings, we believe Europe should benefit from the moderately resilient economic environment and rate cuts. In government bonds, we are positive on the US and core Europe, along with Italy. In credit, valuations in Euro investment grade appear attractive. We also look for selective opportunities across emerging markets and see oil as providing protection from geopolitical risks.
We have markedly revised up our forecast for US growth, in particular for H1 2024. We continue to expect GDP growth to decelerate below its potential pace over the next few quarters, before recovering in 2025. Regarding inflation, although the downward trend in core consumer price index inflation has recently stalled, we think that the disinflationary process will continue, albeit along a bumpy road with stickier dynamics. The Fed will still be in a position to pivot towards rate cuts and we expect 75 bps of cuts in 2024 (vs 40 bps by markets) as: (1) monetary policy remains restrictive and will become more restrictive as inflation declines; (2) growth will slow down; and (3) recent inflation data have not altered our year-end projections.
We anticipate fundamental market shifts in 2024 resulting from global dynamics and geopolitical events, and continue our agile emphasis on value, quality and growth across asset classes.
Look beyond near horizons to pockets of resilience and change in a transitioning economy.
Rate cuts in 2024 may be the catalyst for reducing portfolio risk by moving allocations to longer-term, higher-quality bonds.
Consider shifting equity holdings away from concentration risk by infusing quality across cyclicals, defensives and industries primed for the next-stage economy.
Market volatility is an expected undercurrent in 2024, and alternatives to traditional assets may offset the potential downside.
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