No Systemic Risk from SVB Failure, but Watch Out for Areas of Vulnerability

Tuesday 14 March 2023

Investment Talks

   

No Systemic Risk from SVB Failure, but Watch Out for Areas of Vulnerability

March 2023 | The SVB bank failure is the third after Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank, and it is the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, with SVB being the 16th biggest US bank. The failure was mainly due to an asset-liability mismatch, which resulted in the materialization of losses from sales of quality bonds that were trading down amid rising yields over the last year.

01 |  SVB bank failure is the third after Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank, and it is the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, with SVB being the 16th biggest US bank.

02 | We believe this is not a systemic risk: while being a negative for the market, the SVB failure is more of an idiosyncratic story rather than a systemic issue.

03 | While we believe the Fed will remain committed to fighting inflation, it will have also to assess the impact of the current crisis and its potential spillovers in its policy.

No Systemic Risk - SVB Failure - Watch Out for Vulnerability

Important Information

Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management US (Amundi US) and is as of March 14, 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi US and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results. Amundi Asset Management US is the US business of the Amundi Asset Management group of companies.

Other news

ME-diverse Economic Impacts of AI
03/20/2025 Investment Talks

The diverse economic impacts of artificial intelligence

We believe that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could have over the long-term a positive impact on productivity and GDP growth. However, the impact will not be linear across sectors, especially in the early phases. There will be winners and losers in most industries. To be a "winner" a company needs not only to be an early-mover in terms of investing in AI, but also possess a proprietary data advantage, an existing competitive edge based on market position and an ability to innovate successfully. Otherwise, any advantages from using AI technologies could be competed away. In our view, the future winners are most likely to be found among the existing competitively-advantaged companies.

IT-Tarrifs-European-Volatility
03/14/2025 Investment Talks

Tariffs and European news fuel volatility

Recent market activity has been marked by increased volatility. In the US, this has been mainly driven by growing concerns about the trajectory of the US economy, particularly in light of the erratic statements from President Trump with regard to tariffs. Additionally, the latest economic data has been disappointing. Consequently, the market's expectations for US growth for the current year have been revised downwards. With near-term inflation still well above the Fed’s target and consumer expectations of rising inflation (primarily a function of tariffs), the Fed will likely be forced to hold rates higher for longer to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored. But, through the course of this year, we believe it will be able to reduce interest rates.

2025 Muni Mkt Outlook
03/10/2025 Investment Talks

Municipal Market Outlook

Unlike the US Treasury curve, the tax-exempt curve remains significantly positively sloped, leading to elevated yields in core and longer-duration municipal strategies. The high yield municipal market, in our view, displays a potential opportunity to provide not only tax-efficient dividends, but also pockets of price appreciation found in select sectors and security themes. In general, we expect credit stability in 2025, with potential policy shifts creating both credit negatives and positives. Some of these policy impacts may be felt in port issuers: broadly applied tariffs could impact bottom lines; hands-off energy policy could benefit traditional energy-producing local agencies and states; and Medicaid and Medicare reimbursement eligibility rate shifts could negatively impact smaller regional health care systems.