A semblance of a goldilocks ahead of Trump's inauguration
A semblance of a goldilocks ahead of Trump's inauguration
Friday 03 January 2025
Global Investment Views, Equity, Fixed income
A semblance of a goldilocks ahead of Trump's inauguration
January 2025 | Markets have cheered any good news emerging in 2024 from the economy, corporate earnings and the political environment, although occasionally they were caught by surprise. Looking ahead, they will be driven by earnings momentum, a scenario of slowing US growth, and rebalancing labor markets. On the other hand, the Fed's more hawkish stance and Trump's approach to trade, along with the international response, could create volatility. Outside the US, European growth and policy-making, as well as China's response to its domestic problems, will drive the markets.
01 | US growth is proving resilient, but still appears to be on a declining path and subject to uncertainty on Trump policies. Recent data are pointing towards better fundamentals in the economy.
02 | European growth is struggling to stay on course. France's and Germany's attempts to impose fiscal consolidation are clouding the growth outlook. In Germany, we could see a loosening of the debt brake, but it would only be gradual and the economic impact would be seen from 2026.
03 | We have strengthened our positive stance on US equities and turned constructive on Europe, while also maintaining a positive view on the UK and Japan.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management as of January 2, 2025. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset Management and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product or service. This material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, fund units or services. Investment involves risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Amundi US is the US business of Amundi Asset Management.
