Biden's exit from the presidential race opens a phase of uncertainty
Biden's exit from the presidential race opens a phase of uncertainty
Monday 22 July 2024
Investment Talks
Biden's exit from the presidential race opens a phase of uncertainty
July 2024 | Market reaction to Biden's announcement has been muted at the time of writing, with a fall in the US dollar in early trading on Monday (July 22nd), a marginal movement in 10-year US Treasuries, and an upward trend in equity futures. In terms of the implications on markets, the election outcome is still highly uncertain. It is too early to define a potential "Harris trade," but even to have a specific trading strategy for a potential Trump 2.0 administration, as there is ideological uncertainty regarding its goals and policies. There are also significant ideological clashes that the Trump administration would need to address, such as the approach towards China, inflation, tariffs, fiscal expansion and the desire for a weaker dollar.
01 | Current US President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he will not seek re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Donations for the campaign have begun to rise after Biden's decision.
02 | The Democratic convention in Chicago from August 19th to 22nd is a potential venue for the nomination of Kamala Harris, which would draw attention to the party and the new candidate.
03 | We believe markets will continue to focus on the current earnings season and on the potential actions of the Fed, while the implications from the election could become more prominent after the summer when the campaign enters its hottest phase.
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